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The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects that retail sales in 2025 will grow between 2.7% and 3.7%, reaching a total between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion. This forecast, shared at the organization’s annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event, marks a slight cooling from 2024’s 3.6% growth rate, but aligns with the average pace of retail expansion over the decade before the pandemic[1][2][4]. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay pointed to continued economic momentum in early 2025, citing low unemployment and real wage increases, while noting that policy uncertainty is weighing on both consumer and business confidence[1][2].

Online and other non-store sales are expected to remain strong, with year-over-year growth of 7% to 9%, totaling between $1.57 trillion and $1.6 trillion. This follows 8.1% growth in 2024, when online sales reached $1.47 trillion—evidence of sustained consumer comfort with ecommerce and major retail investments in omnichannel strategies[1][2][4].

However, the 2025 projection reflects a more cautious outlook prompted by rising tariffs, persistent inflation, and significant shifts in U.S. trade policy. New tariffs—including a universal baseline set at 10%—are expected to contribute to higher prices and put further pressure on consumer spending, especially in sectors like apparel. While the U.S. labor market remains a stabilizing force, economic uncertainties and inflation could result in a slower trajectory for consumer spending growth this year compared to recent years[3][4].

At the global level, the NRF’s 2025 Top 50 Global Retailers list shows Walmart retaining its position as the world’s largest retailer, followed by Amazon and other major players. The ranking reflects a year in which market uncertainties began to stabilize, with global retailers making significant investments in infrastructure and supply chain resilience. Notably, ecommerce growth slowed as more shoppers returned to physical stores, while supply chain costs and wages increased across markets[6].

Technology and innovation remain at the forefront of the retail industry, with the NRF 2025 event in New York highlighting emerging trends. Industry leaders focused on the next frontier for retail tech and customer experience at sessions featuring top executives and solution providers, underscoring the sector’s adaptability in a shifting economic landscape[7].

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