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The United States has recently deported five migrants, all convicted of violent crimes, to Eswatini as part of an expanded “third-country” deportation policy enacted by the Trump administration. According to the Department of Homeland Security, the migrants, originating from Vietnam, Jamaica, Laos, Cuba, and Yemen, arrived in Eswatini after their home countries refused to accept their return. The crimes involved include murder and the sexual abuse of a minor. This operation marks the second time the administration has used this method since a July Supreme Court decision permitted the deportation of noncitizens to countries where they have no ties[1][3][5].

Eswatini authorities have not made public statements regarding any formal deal to accept third-country deportees or their plans for these individuals. The policy shift follows pressure on several African nations to accept non-citizen deportees from the U.S., despite some resistance from countries like Nigeria[3]. The move is controversial and has sparked debate about human rights and the legal justification for sending individuals to unfamiliar countries without allowing them to contest potential harm they may face[1].

Domestically, social stability in Eswatini is expected to persist through 2025, with protests remaining unlikely due to a weakened opposition and the limited democratic space under King Mswati III’s absolute monarchy. The latest assessment suggests that while pro-democracy protests had surged in previous years, recent events have diminished the momentum of opposition groups, notably following an alleged poisoning attempt on the exiled leader of the People’s United Democratic Movement (PUDEMO). Political parties remain banned, and civic activity is tightly controlled, making large-scale demonstrations highly improbable in the near term[2].

However, Eswatini faces longer-term challenges, including entrenched inequality and weak political freedoms, which international observers warn could fuel instability in the future. Previous years have seen violent confrontations and alleged state repression targeting democracy advocates. Notably, high-profile human rights lawyer Thulani Maseko was killed in early 2023, an act widely blamed on state security agents, though denied by the government. The ongoing crisis is marked by cycles of state and opposition violence, hindering prospects for negotiated democratic reforms[4].

On the economic front, the African Development Bank has approved a new Country Strategy Paper (CSP) for Eswatini covering 2025 to 2030. This strategy aims to accelerate economic diversification and improve resilience through investments in climate-resilient infrastructure and efforts to strengthen private sector competitiveness. The government’s agenda, supported by development partners, focuses on transforming the economy away from low-value activities to support sustainable growth and inclusion[6].

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